Although the value of 10 grams of gold is roughly Rs 3000 or 4% beneath its all-time highs, gold fans have the alternative to buy the treasured metallic on the auspicious event of Akshaya Tritiya, say experts.
A research of gold value tendencies since 2014 reveals a diverse efficiency of gold between one Akshaya Tritiya and the subsequent. In 2015, the value decreased by 12% main as much as the following Akshaya Tritiya. Similarly, in 2017, there was a 3.23% decline.
However, gold has yielded constructive returns on eight events between two consecutive Akshaya Tritiya, with the highest returns of 32% in 2020. In 2023, the returns have as soon as once more reached double digits, making it a sexy time for buyers to think about including gold to their portfolios.
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So the place are gold costs headed and what ought to buyers do? Here’s what experts must say
Gold Prices: Trend So far
Navneet Damani, Group Senior Vice President, Commodity and Currency Research, MOFS notes that identical to final 12 months, gold and silver has seen northward motion in Q1 2024 as nicely, matching and even outperforming different main asset lessons. “As we enter the new FY, which starts with the auspicious occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, gold and silver have marked gains of 13% and 11% year-to-date, respectively. Two main factors are triggering volatility in the bullion market – geo-political tensions and US Federal Reserve monetary policy,” he tells TOI.
Naveen Mathur, Director – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers says that gold costs are up virtually 17–18 % since the final competition date. “Prices have continued to depict a strong trend in the first quarter of the year; a 3% increase in demand worldwide and an 8% increase in demand in India were noted as per estimates by the World Gold Council,” he tells TOI.
Gold Prices: What’s the outlook?
According to Anand Rathi’s Mathur, gold costs have been rising as a consequence of the proven fact that buyers have remained optimistic specializing in the long run worth of their investments. “Although we may not expect new record highs in the near term, gold prices are still expected to remain steady this festival season. Jewellery demand may get impacted in rural India, while investment demand still remains firm leading to prices to consolidate in the range of Rs 69,800 – 72,900 in futures contract in MCX,” he mentioned.
Navneet Damani says evaluating gold returns over the final 15 years for Akshaya Tritiya, gold has delivered a ten% CAGR. “There are both positives and negatives for gold prices at this juncture, lower than expected economic data points, rise in growth concerns, higher rate cut expectations in this year, geo-political tensions, concerns regarding rising debt, increase in demand and fall in US Yields could act as tailwinds for prices. Market participants always discount future events in advance, like an early rate cut by the US Fed, hence any black swan event could further support the prices in future,” he tells TOI.
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“There are several platforms for market participants to invest in gold based on their risk profile. From a longer term horizon, it is advised to invest in Sovereign Gold Bonds which will help to capitalise the price rise in gold and an additional 2.5% p.a. interest to investors. Several other modes to invest could be in the form of ETF, exchange traded derivatives, Digital Gold and Physical bars and coins,” Damani mentioned.
“We continue to maintain a positive stance for Gold recommending buying on dips, with a target of Rs 75,000 for gold on domestic front and $2450 on Comex,” he provides.
Anuj Gupta, Head Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities advised ET, “The recent correction is a good opportunity for investors who have a medium to long term term view on this bullion metal and one should look to invest in it in a staggered manner rather than in one shot”. He suggests Rs 69,000-Rs 69,500 ranges as beneficial entry factors as sees room for additional upside with costs anticipated to hit Rs 80,000-Rs 85,000 by subsequent Akshaya Tritiya.
