Stock market recommendations: Arvind, and Bajaj Finance are the top stock picks by Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives, SBI Securities for the week beginning February 16, 2026. He additionally shares his views and outlook on Nifty, Bank Nifty:Index View: NiftyLast week, the Nifty as soon as once more struggled to maintain above the psychologically necessary 26000 mark, triggering a recent wave of revenue reserving. After briefly touching 26009, the index slipped almost 550 factors in the remaining two periods alone—a swift reversal that clearly displays provide strain at increased ranges. While the headline decline might seem routine, the forces driving this correction level to deeper shifts beneath the floor.A significant drag got here from the Nifty IT index, which suffered a steep 8% weekly fall and is now down greater than 14% month-to-date, making it one of the sharpest sectoral losers in latest months. The sell-off has been aggravated by rising issues over the speedy rise of AIled start-ups, which buyers more and more view as structurally disruptive to conventional IT providers. The pace and extent of the decline recommend this will not simply be a short-lived pullback, elevating the vital query of whether or not the sector has totally priced in the evolving dangers.Technically, the IT house continues to flash robust warning alerts. Every key constituent of the Nifty IT index is now buying and selling under its main transferring averages, all of that are trending firmly downward. Momentum indicators stay deeply bearish, with no indicators of stabilization or reversal. In this setting, bottomfishing makes an attempt may show untimely except charts start to present a significant shift.Turning again to the broader Nifty, the index has slipped under its 20day, 50day, and 100day EMAs, reflecting clear deterioration in each brief and medium time period development energy. Notably, the 20day and 50day EMAs have additionally begun to slope downward—an early but highly effective indication of weakening momentum. The day by day RSI’s failure to reclaim the 60 degree throughout the latest pullback, adopted by a dip under its 9day common, means that upside potential might stay restricted for now.Looking forward, the 25350–25300 zone is anticipated to act as rapid help. A decisive break under 25300 may pave the means for a deeper slide towards 25100, and subsequently the key 24900 degree. On the upside, the 50day EMA zone at 25650–25700 now stands as a stiff barrier and can want to be cleared for the index to regain any significant momentum.Bank Nifty ViewThe Bank Nifty outperformed the frontline indices final week, ending the week on a flat observe regardless of heightened volatility in the broader market. For most of the week, the index remained caught in a slender 431point vary, signalling a transparent section of consolidation. This stability, nevertheless, broke on Friday as the index slipped into a spread breakdown, indicating the first indicators of weak point after a number of periods of subdued worth motion.Despite Friday’s dip, Bank Nifty continues to maintain above all its main transferring averages, which stay in an upward trajectory—underscoring that the broader development construction continues to be intact. However, momentum indicators and oscillators are pointing in direction of a sideways-to-neutral bias, suggesting that the index might proceed to consolidate earlier than any significant directional transfer emerges.In the days forward, the 20day EMA zone of 60000–59900 will act as rapid help. A sustained breakdown under 59900 may open the gates for additional decline in direction of the 50day EMA, presently positioned close to 59467. On the upside, the 60600–60700 zone stays a vital resistance space, and solely a decisive shut above this band might set the stage for a recent upward transfer.
Stock recommendations:
ArvindArvind has delivered a downward sloping trendline breakout on the weekly chart, backed by robust follow-through worth motion and rising volumes, which provides credibility to the transfer. Weekly RSI has jumped from 43 to 65, signalling a pointy enchancment in bullish momentum and a shift towards energy territory. ADX is rising steadily, indicating that development energy is increasing on the upside. Rising MACD histogram bars additional present rising optimistic momentum and rising bullish management. Overall, the worth construction and indicator alignment recommend the stock is effectively positioned to lengthen its up transfer in the coming periods. Hence, we advocate to accumulate the stock in the zone of 386-383 with a stoploss of 370. On the upside, it’s doubtless to take a look at the degree of 420 in the brief time period. Bajaj FinanceBajaj Finance has damaged out above a downward sloping trendline on the day by day chart, pointing to a possible shift from correction to recent uptrend. On the weekly chart, a 3 outdoors up candle sample is seen, the place a powerful bullish candle totally engulfs the prior bearish candle and is adopted by additional upside, a basic bullish reversal construction. RSI has surged from 39 to 56 in three periods, reflecting sharp momentum restoration. In ADX, DI+ crossing above DI− reveals bullish directional energy is constructing. Meanwhile, shrinking purple MACD histogram bars point out that draw back momentum is fading and patrons are regularly taking management. Hence, we advocate to accumulate the stock in the zone of 1025-1035 with a stoploss of 1000. On the upside, it’s doubtless to take a look at the degree of 1100 in the brief time period.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, different asset courses or private finance administration ideas given by specialists are their very own. These opinions don’t characterize the views of The Times of India)
