Silver has outperformed the S&P BSE Sensex, gold, and Bitcoin in the unstable month of May. While the Sensex has declined by 566 factors or 0.75%, silver has surged by 11.29% or over Rs 9,580 per kg. The white steel’s industrial enchantment and expectations of at the very least two rate of interest cuts this yr have fueled its rally.
According to an ET report by Shivendra Kumar, the good points in silver throughout the first two weeks of May account for almost 60% of its whole good points in 2024, with a year-to-date improve of 21% or Rs 16,000 per kg.On Friday, July silver futures on the MCX reached an all-time excessive of Rs 90,391.
In comparability, the Sensex began May at 74,482.78 and closed at 73,917.03 on Friday, May 17. Gold has gained 4.45% or Rs 3,135 per 10 grams throughout this era, with year-to-date good points amounting to 16.38% or Rs 10,359.
Bitcoin, though trailing behind silver and gold, has carried out higher than the Sensex, with good points of 4% or $2,605 in the similar interval.
Also Read | Silver set to outperform gold? Precious steel more likely to cross Rs 1 lakh mark over 1 yr horizon
Anuj Gupta, Head Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, identifies the Street’s anticipation of a Fed price minimize and the enchancment in world manufacturing exercise as the major components driving the current uptrend in silver costs. Gupta said, “Following a period of consolidation in industrial metals, there has been a notable uptrend in recent times as global manufacturing activity has improved. This is a positive development, contributing to the upward movement of silver prices,” he said.
Naveen Mathur, Director – Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, attributes the new all-time highs to expectations of a fourth consecutive year of structural deficit in the silver market. He forecasts a 20% increase in demand for silver in 2024, reaching 1.20 billion ounces, driven by its applications in the green economy, particularly in the photovoltaic sector.
He also highlights the decline in stockpiles tracked by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) to the second-lowest level in April, which has led to bullish buying.
Also Read | When will gold prices cross the Rs 2 lakh mark?
Mathur added, “For the remainder of the yr we anticipate this bull run to stay amid intermittent corrective worth strikes with the US Fed resorting to price cuts in the second half of the yr together with a weakening greenback index might drive larger funding demand in white steel.”
Jigar Pandit, Head Commodity & Currency Business at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, has expressed confidence in the sustainability of the silver rally this year, stating, “The industrial demand is anticipated to enhance from China in H2 and the newest industrial manufacturing of 6.7% for April offers us confidence that the silver rally will maintain this yr.”
The rise in silver prices in May also coincides with Akshaya Tritiya (May 10), a time when purchasing gold and silver is considered auspicious.
Mathur believes that the US Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts in the latter half of the year, coupled with a weakening dollar index, could drive higher investment demand in silver, despite two downward revisions instead of the three initially anticipated.
According to Pandit from Sharekhan, precious metals tend to perform better in lower interest rate environments due to increased liquidity availability. With an 80% probability of rate cuts in September and support from the broader rally in base metals amidst supply concerns, silver is poised for growth. Pandit noted, “Silver market itself is anticipated to indicate a deficit for the third straight time in 2024.”
Also Read | How a lot gold can you purchase in money and are PAN, Aadhaar particulars obligatory?
Domestic silver costs are anticipated to comply with the lead of worldwide charges, with silver futures on the Comex at the moment buying and selling close to $29.97.
Gupta from HDFC Securities anticipates silver to rally in direction of $34 to $36 per ounce in the brief time period, with a decisive breakout above $36 opening the door for additional upside to $42. He identifies help ranges at $26-24.80 and maintains the most bullish stance on silver, setting a long-term goal of Rs 1,10,000 per kg.
Mathur from Anand Rathi initiatives a goal of Rs 1,00,000 for silver.
While analysts stay bullish, they acknowledge the risk of minor corrections.
Pandit expects silver to commerce between Rs 85,000 and Rs 88,300 in the close to time period, advising traders to purchase on dips, with the subsequent resistance degree at Rs 92,700.
Mathur anticipates a dip round Rs 85,000–84,000 on MCX July futures, presenting a short-term shopping for alternative with the potential for 15–20% returns over the subsequent 1–2 years.
Gupta recommends a 15% to twenty% allocation in silver for aggressive merchants, 10% for average risk-takers, and 5% for conservative traders.
According to an ET report by Shivendra Kumar, the good points in silver throughout the first two weeks of May account for almost 60% of its whole good points in 2024, with a year-to-date improve of 21% or Rs 16,000 per kg.On Friday, July silver futures on the MCX reached an all-time excessive of Rs 90,391.
In comparability, the Sensex began May at 74,482.78 and closed at 73,917.03 on Friday, May 17. Gold has gained 4.45% or Rs 3,135 per 10 grams throughout this era, with year-to-date good points amounting to 16.38% or Rs 10,359.
Bitcoin, though trailing behind silver and gold, has carried out higher than the Sensex, with good points of 4% or $2,605 in the similar interval.
Also Read | Silver set to outperform gold? Precious steel more likely to cross Rs 1 lakh mark over 1 yr horizon
Anuj Gupta, Head Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, identifies the Street’s anticipation of a Fed price minimize and the enchancment in world manufacturing exercise as the major components driving the current uptrend in silver costs. Gupta said, “Following a period of consolidation in industrial metals, there has been a notable uptrend in recent times as global manufacturing activity has improved. This is a positive development, contributing to the upward movement of silver prices,” he said.
Naveen Mathur, Director – Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, attributes the new all-time highs to expectations of a fourth consecutive year of structural deficit in the silver market. He forecasts a 20% increase in demand for silver in 2024, reaching 1.20 billion ounces, driven by its applications in the green economy, particularly in the photovoltaic sector.
He also highlights the decline in stockpiles tracked by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) to the second-lowest level in April, which has led to bullish buying.
Also Read | When will gold prices cross the Rs 2 lakh mark?
Mathur added, “For the remainder of the yr we anticipate this bull run to stay amid intermittent corrective worth strikes with the US Fed resorting to price cuts in the second half of the yr together with a weakening greenback index might drive larger funding demand in white steel.”
Jigar Pandit, Head Commodity & Currency Business at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, has expressed confidence in the sustainability of the silver rally this year, stating, “The industrial demand is anticipated to enhance from China in H2 and the newest industrial manufacturing of 6.7% for April offers us confidence that the silver rally will maintain this yr.”
The rise in silver prices in May also coincides with Akshaya Tritiya (May 10), a time when purchasing gold and silver is considered auspicious.
Mathur believes that the US Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts in the latter half of the year, coupled with a weakening dollar index, could drive higher investment demand in silver, despite two downward revisions instead of the three initially anticipated.
According to Pandit from Sharekhan, precious metals tend to perform better in lower interest rate environments due to increased liquidity availability. With an 80% probability of rate cuts in September and support from the broader rally in base metals amidst supply concerns, silver is poised for growth. Pandit noted, “Silver market itself is anticipated to indicate a deficit for the third straight time in 2024.”
Also Read | How a lot gold can you purchase in money and are PAN, Aadhaar particulars obligatory?
Domestic silver costs are anticipated to comply with the lead of worldwide charges, with silver futures on the Comex at the moment buying and selling close to $29.97.
Gupta from HDFC Securities anticipates silver to rally in direction of $34 to $36 per ounce in the brief time period, with a decisive breakout above $36 opening the door for additional upside to $42. He identifies help ranges at $26-24.80 and maintains the most bullish stance on silver, setting a long-term goal of Rs 1,10,000 per kg.
Mathur from Anand Rathi initiatives a goal of Rs 1,00,000 for silver.
While analysts stay bullish, they acknowledge the risk of minor corrections.
Pandit expects silver to commerce between Rs 85,000 and Rs 88,300 in the close to time period, advising traders to purchase on dips, with the subsequent resistance degree at Rs 92,700.
Mathur anticipates a dip round Rs 85,000–84,000 on MCX July futures, presenting a short-term shopping for alternative with the potential for 15–20% returns over the subsequent 1–2 years.
Gupta recommends a 15% to twenty% allocation in silver for aggressive merchants, 10% for average risk-takers, and 5% for conservative traders.
