NEW DELHI: India’s fuel consumption is about to surge 60% to 103 billon cubic metres (bcm) by 2030, resulting in greater than doubling of liquefied pure fuel (LNG) imports, the International Energy Agency stated on Wednesday, suggesting additional liberalisation of the home market because the world heads in the direction of a surplus.
Noting that India is trying to enhance the share of fuel in its power combine from somewhat over 6% to fifteen%, the IEA’s particular report on India fuel market launched on the India Energy Week projected a possible for even larger development beneath an accelerated situation, the place focused coverage measures may push complete demand to roughly 120 bcm by 2030 – similar to the present fuel consumption of SouthAmerica.
As home pure fuel manufacturing is projected to see solely marginal development till 2030, LNG imports are anticipated to satisfy an growing share of India’s future fuel demand. The hole between contracted LNG provide and projected LNG necessities is about to widen considerably after 2028, leaving India extra uncovered to the volatility of the spot LNG market until further LNG contracts are secured in coming years, the report stated.
“The prospect of upper fuel demand coincides with an anticipated wave of latest international LNG provide. However, it can require cautious planning and market coordination to make sure provide safety in addition to assist fuel to compete in a price-sensitive market,” in keeping with Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director of power markets and safety.
City fuel distribution sector is anticipated to guide the expansion in consumption via 2030, supported by speedy enlargement in CNG (compressed pure fuel) infrastructure and aggressive pricing in opposition to liquid fuels. Heavy trade and manufacturing sectors are anticipated so as to add round 15 bcm of demand throughout this era, whereas fuel use in oil refining is forecast to extend by greater than 4 bcm as extra refineries hook up with the community.
Demand elevated by greater than 10% in each 2023 and 2024, indicating an inflection level as speedy infrastructure enlargement and coverage assist drive unprecedented development in consumption, the report stated.
Domestic fuel manufacturing, which met half the demand in 2023, is projected to develop to simply beneath 38 bcm by 2030, or about 8% above 2023 ranges. Hence LNG imports might want to greater than double to round 65 bcm a yr by 2030 to bridge the shortfall, it stated.
Looking forward, the report emphasised the necessity for strategic planning in LNG procurement and import infrastructure. As legacy contracts expire, India faces a widening hole between contracted provide and projected demand after 2028, doubtlessly growing publicity to identify market volatility until new long-term contracts are secured within the coming years.
