Bankers, economists expect RBI to cut key interest rate in second half of FY25


NEW DELHI: With RBI holding the benchmark interest rate on Friday, bankers and economists stated the primary financial coverage committee meet put up normal elections has instilled confidence and stability in the market they usually expect the central financial institution to slash repo rate in the second half of FY25. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its key interest rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent as anticipated, holding the concentrate on inflation amid strong financial progress that’s seemingly to present the brand new Modi authorities headroom for manoeuvring reforms.
The central financial institution additionally retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the present fiscal assuming a standard monsoon, whereas emphasising that uncertainties associated to meals worth outlook warrant an in depth monitoring.
Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL Ltd stated: “We now see the RBI cutting rates starting October and have lowered our expectation to two rate cuts against three foreseen earlier.”
According to Ajay Kumar Srivastava, Managing Director & CEO, Indian Overseas Bank, the RBI’s resolution to proceed its concentrate on “withdrawal of accommodation” displays a balanced strategy to maintain financial progress whereas holding inflation in test.
RBI’s resolution on e-mandates for recurring funds to be prolonged to fastags, introduction of auto replenishment of UPI-like pockets, and institution of a digital funds intelligence platform, is all set to promote a resilient banking sector, he added.
Rajiv Sabharwal, MD and CEO, Tata Capital stated: “The first MPC post-election has instilled confidence and stability in the market. With steady repo rate at 6.5 per cent, RBI is hinting towards balancing growth and inflation.”
According to Achala Jethmalani, Economist, RBL Bank, given India’s growth-inflation dynamics, a rate cut is anticipated in Q4FY25 with a change in coverage stance by December 2024. The progress of southwest monsoon and the July funds will likely be important inputs in the August MPC coverage.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head of Research and Outreach at ICRA Ltd stated: “The status quo from the MPC was on expected lines, with only the voting change on the stance to 4:2 posing a surprise. Despite this, the 10 year G-sec yield remained above 7 per cent, with the actual start to the rate cut cycle appearing distant.”
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda stated whereas inflation is to common 4.5 per cent for the 12 months, there’s a concern on meals inflation, particularly in the wake of the heatwave which has elevated costs of horticulture merchandise. But with progress being safe, it offers the RBI room to not begin on rate cuts at this level of time.
“Our view is that October can be the time when a rate cut can be considered but will be fully data-driven. A clarification made by the Governor on decisions being based on local conditions is significant because often markets tend to react to Fed statements as they are interpreted as having impact on the RBI decision on repo rate,” he added.
Rohit Garg, Co-Founder& CEO, Olyv (previously SensibleCoin) stated, this resolution underscores the central financial institution’s dedication to fostering stability amidst strong financial progress and a slight easing of inflation to 4.83 per cent.
“The Indian government’s pursuit of reducing the fiscal deficit, supported by RBI dividends, further reinforces economic stability. Despite revising the GDP forecast for FY25 to 7.2 per cent, the RBI opted to keep the consumer inflation forecast unchanged,” he added.
Anantharam Varayur, Co Founder, Manasum Senior Living stated the RBI’s resolution is especially encouraging for the senior dwelling residential initiatives sector.
“The unchanged repo rate provides much-needed stability, ensuring that borrowing costs for developers remain steady. This predictability in interest rates could attract more investment into senior living projects, as developers can plan their finances more effectively,” Varayur added.
The Monetary Policy Committee, consisting of three RBI and an equal quantity of exterior members, saved the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent for an eighth straight coverage assembly and caught to its comparatively hawkish stance of “withdrawal of accommodation”.
However, there have been indicators of a extra divided coverage committee, with one extra member voting for a softening in stance in addition to coverage route. Two exterior members, Ashima Goyal and Jayanth Varma, voted for a cut, in contrast to one in the earlier assembly.
The resolution comes simply days forward of Narendra Modi assuming the workplace of Prime Minister for the third straight time however with a smaller-than-expected election victory that pressured his get together BJP to share energy in a coalition authorities.

Nilesh Desai
Nilesh Desai
The Hindu Patrika is founded in 2016 by Mr. Nilesh Desai. This website is providing news and information mainly related to Hinduism. We appreciate if you send News, information or suggestion.


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